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Global Mind Leaders - "Superforcasting"
Article
Title
" Superforcasting : How to Upgrade Your Company’s Judgment "
Description
Imagine that you could dramatically improve your firm's forecasting ability, but to do so youd have to expose just how unreliable its predictions—and the people making them—really are. Thats exactly what the U.S. intelligence community did, with dramatic results
by Paul J.H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock ( Harvard Business Review ).
Idea In Brief
The Problem
Organizations and individuals are notoriously poor at judging the likelihood of uncertain events. Predictions are often colored by the forecaster's susceptibility to cognitive biases, desire to in uence others, and concerns about reputation. Getting judgments wrong can of course have serious consequences.
Organizations and individuals are notoriously poor at judging the likelihood of uncertain events. Predictions are often colored by the forecaster's susceptibility to cognitive biases, desire to in uence others, and concerns about reputation. Getting judgments wrong can of course have serious consequences.
The Research
On the basis of research involving 25,000 forecasters and a million predictions, the authors identi ed a set of practices that can improve companies' prediction capability: training in the basics of statistics and biases; debating forecasts in teams; and tracking performance and giving rapid feedback.
On the basis of research involving 25,000 forecasters and a million predictions, the authors identi ed a set of practices that can improve companies' prediction capability: training in the basics of statistics and biases; debating forecasts in teams; and tracking performance and giving rapid feedback.
In Practice
To improve prediction capability, companies should keep real-time accounts of how their top teams make judgments, including underlying assumptions, data sources, external events, and so on. Keys to success include requiring frequent, precise predictions and measuring accuracy for comparison.
To improve prediction capability, companies should keep real-time accounts of how their top teams make judgments, including underlying assumptions, data sources, external events, and so on. Keys to success include requiring frequent, precise predictions and measuring accuracy for comparison.
